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01/28/2012 - Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams continuing to jockey for position within the ACC meet in Raleigh tonight, as the 19th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers take on the NC State Wolfpack.
Virginia is an impressive 16-3 this season, but the team is just a game over .500 in conference (3-2). The Cavaliers took care of visiting Boston College with relative ease the last time out, 66-49, but they have alternated wins and losses over their last four bouts. Virginia is 4-1 in true road games this season, giving the team some extra confidence heading into this clash.
NC State took on bitter rival North Carolina on Thursday night, and was beaten back in a 74-55 loss in Chapel Hill. As a result, the Wolfpack enter this contest with a 15-6 overall ledger, and they are 4-2 in ACC action. NC State has won 11 of its first 14 home games of the season, and including this matchup, will play five of its final nine regular-season bouts in Raleigh.
NC State owns an 80-57 lead in the all-time series with Virginia, but the Cavs have won six of the last eight meetings.
Virginia's strength is its ability to play shut-down defense, as the team is allowing a paltry 50.1 ppg to rank among the national leaders in that category. Foes are shooting just 38.7 percent from the field overall, and only 26.9 percent from three-point range. The Cavaliers also control the glass (+7.0 rebounding margin), and are +2.3 in turnover differential. From an offensive standpoint, the team boasts one of the league's top performers in Mike Scott, who hits his total shots 58.1 percent of the time, his free throws at an 81.2 percent clip, and he grabs 8.4 rpg for good measure. Joe Harris (12.3 ppg) is the only other double-digit scorer for Virginia, which puts up 64.4 ppg on 45.7 percent field goal efficiency, which includes a 33.3 percent showing from beyond the arc. Scott was high man once again for the Cavaliers in their recent rout of Boston College, going 7-of-11 from the floor in netting 18 points. Akil Mitchell and Jontel Evans chipped in 10 points apiece for coach Tony Bennett's club, which shot 50.9 percent from the field and turned the ball over only eight times.
NC State took it on the chin in its recent matchup with rival North Carolina, as the team shot just 36.8 percent from the field and only 44.4 percent from the foul line. In contrast, the Tar Heels made good on 48.4 percent of their total shots and dominated the glass to the tune of a 48-26 rebounding advantage. The Wolfpack did manage to hit nine three-pointers in the game, but they committed 17 turnovers and were outscored in the paint, 42-20. Scott Wood was the only player to reach double figures for coach Mark Gottfried's squad, as he tallied 11 points even though he went just 4-of-12 from the floor. Wood is one of five double-digit scorers on the roster for NC State, as he leads the team with 13.2 ppg on the strength of his 44.4 percent (56-of-126) effort from beyond the arc. C.J. Leslie (12.6 ppg, 6.3 rpg), Lorenzo Brown (12.2 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 7.2 apg), C.J. Williams (11.8 ppg, 3.8 rpg) and Richard Howell (11.7 ppg, 9.0 rpg) round out the group, which averages 75.9 ppg on 47.2 percent field goal efficiency, which includes 37.0 percent from downtown. The Wolfpack yields 68.6 ppg, and lays claim to a +5.4 rebounding margin.
<< Sixth-ranked Bears welcome Longhorns to Waco
Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Baylor Bears continue their quest
towards the top spot in the Big 12, as they welcome the Texas Longhorns to
Waco for a conference showdown at the Ferrell Center.
Scott Drew's Bears are 5-2 in-con
<< Blue Devils and Red Storm collide in Durham
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the 14th straight season, the Duke Blue
Devils and St. John's Red Storm will take time out of their conference slates
to meet on the hardwood.
The eighth-ranked Blue Devils are 5-1 in ACC play this season. T
<< No.3 Orange take on Mountaineers at Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The third-ranked Syracuse Orange return home
to defend their top spot in the conference standings, as they welcome in the
West Virginia Mountaineers for a Big East showdown at the Carrier Dome.
Jim Boeheim's O
<< No. 12 UNLV comes calling on Air Force
USAFA, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Closing in on the 20-win plateau, the 12th-ranked
UNLV Runnin' Rebels take their act on the road tonight as they clash with the
Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference action at Clune Arena.
Since losing to
Kaman could be a keeper elsewhere >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - You can forget about blowing the whistle
on ageism in sports.
After all, it's not only accepted it's expected.
If you were wondering why the New Orleans Hornets are actively trying to trade
center Chris
Davis moves Rangers closer to the top >>
Glasgow, Scotland (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A goal in each half from Steven Davis
propelled Rangers to a 4-0 win over Hibernian at the Ibrox Stadium on
Saturday, moving the club to within a point of leaders Celtic.
Davis scored the lo
Notre Dame picks up 18th straight victory >>
Queens, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Skylar Diggins had 24 points, six assists and
three blocks, as the second-ranked Notre Dame Fighting Irish picked up their
18th straight victory with a 71-56 decision over the St. John's Red Storm.
Devereau
Kagawa fires Dortmund past Hoffenheim >>
Dortmund, Germany (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Shinji Kagawa netted a pair of goals to
lead Borussia Dortmund to a 3-1 win over Hoffenheim on Saturday at Signal-
Iduna-Park, extending Dortmund's unbeaten run to 13 games.
Goals from Kagawa and Ke
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
In any football or basketball game (the main sports that use point spreads) there are two teams playing against each other.
Those teams, though, are rarely exactly evenly matched – meaning that typically one team has a better chance than the other to win the game. If bettors were allowed to bet on who was simply going to win the game, smart ones would obviously bet on the better team (likely winning more than 50% of the time in the process).
If winning were that easy the Las Vegas and online sportsbooks would stop taking any bets! This is where the point spread comes in: the basic function of the point spread is to balance the likelihood of each team “winning” by adjusting the final score by the point spread. After this adjustment is made you get the Against The Spread result (ATS result for short).
Let’s look at Super Bowl XXXIX, New England Patriots vs. Philadelphia Eagles. Most people believed the defending champ Patriots to be the better team – so if betting were simply based upon which team would win the game, an uneven majority of people would have wagered on New England. But, by using the point spread, the bookmakers adjusted the terms of the bet, evening the proposition so about half the people believed the Pats to be the smart bet, while the other half considered Philly to be the smart bet.
New England Patriots -7 vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The better team, called the Favorite, is expected to win the game and must “give” or “lay” points to the weaker team. The favorite is listed with a minus sign and the number of points they are favored by (e.g., New England -7)
In the case of our example, New England must not only win the game, but they must win by more than 7 points for Pats bettors to have a winning ATS result. An Eagles bettor wins his bet either if:
There was also the possibility that the final score could land exactly on the spread number (for example, the Pats winning 28-21 when -7), which is called a “push” or “no action” and a refund is then issued to bettors of both teams.
The same game with the same point spread can be considered from the weaker team’s perspective: The Underdog (Philly in the case of our example) is not expected to win the game and online football betting thus receives or “gets” points given by the stronger team. When a game is stated from the underdog’s perspective the team is listed with a plus sign and the number of points they are underdogs by:
Philadelphia Eagles +7 vs. New England Patriots
Keep in mind that Philadelphia +7 and New England -7 is the same point spread on the same game, simply stated differently. The first is from the underdog’s perspective; the later is from the favorite’s.
Not a must, but for some a mathematical approach is insightful. You can determine the ATS winner by either:
Let’s look at the actual result of Super Bowl XXXIX: New England 24 Philadelphia 21
The favorite, New England, won the game but not by more than the point spread they were favored by (7), so the ATS result was a LOSS for Pats bettors.
Looking at it from the underdog’s perspective, Philly did not win the game, but they lost by less than the point spread (7), so the ATS result was a WIN for Eagle bettors.
Mathematically considered, 24 for the favorite Pats minus 7 equals 17, which is less than the 20 the Eagles scored, so the underdog Eagles win the ATS result (or you could figure 20 plus 7 equals 27 for the Eagles, which is more than 24 for the Pats).
Emily’s boyfriend understood the point spread and wagered $100 on the Eagles at +7. The Eagles may not have gotten a Super Bowl ring, but since they won the ATS result Emily’s boyfriend cashed his bet – giving him money to take her out to a nice dinner.
And now hopefully you understand how to read point spreads, putting you one step closer to joining the fun of sports betting.
To visit this internet sportsbook go to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting and World Series odds.
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